Friday, May 04, 2018

Blind Item #10 - Metal, Misery & War - Part 2 - Mr. Hedge

You can read Part 1 here. 

One grand master plan has been in process for some time, in order to profit mightily from the now semi-precious metal I described in Part 1.  Its brilliance is only eclipsed by its downright evil.

Several years ago, a group led by a certain Eastern Bloc billionaire was formed.  Our billionaire no longer lives in his country of birth.  He strives to stay out of the press as much as possible, but he can be found.

Our billionaire and a couple of his friends pooled a couple billion dollars of their collective net worth, in the form of their own private investment fund. The fund’s main holdings consisted of buying up relatively large amounts of this metal over time. 

This metal would have been a good investment anyway, to be sure.  The price would have risen steadily over the years, due to the industrial / technology demand described in Part 1.

The limited industrial nature of this market made it ripe for a long-term, sizable squeeze.  It isn’t like gold, silver, platinum – which are pretty liquid.

The group stealthily entered into many forward purchase contracts, which had the effect of taking a couple hundred million dollars of this metal off the market per year, spread out into the future.  The metal is held in a few different storage facilities.

This was just enough to create a real supply squeeze, causing the price to really skyrocket over a few years.

The rise in the price of this metal causes the “target value” of this impoverished and historically unstable country’s government to increase as well.  Notice the recent increase in rebel activity in this country.

At present, the fighting is only in the early innings of the game, so to speak. In other words, the fighting has not yet meaningfully affected the supply of this metal. 

This country is the sole source for over half the world's supply of this metal.  When the fighting reaches its apex, and much of the country is engulfed in revolution - this will temporarily cause the price of this metal to reach astronomical heights.  That is when this group will dump their entire holdings of this metal to satisfy the world market, at record prices.

The rebels get money to buy arms and finance their operations from outside industrial interests, who want to control supply of this metal more favorably, with a change in government.
The really sick part?  Our billionaire’s investment group also holds interests in a very large armaments manufacturer in the billionaire’s home country, which supplies these sorts of groups in third world countries, as well as some governments.  So they make money on both sides of the trade, as it were. 

50 comments:

Tricia13 said...

George Soros?

Tricia13 said...

Platinum Group Metals The LLC?
He’s born in Hungary and I believe lives in London now...

Jack said...

There has been some interesting work aimed at reducing or illuminating cobalt from the industry. I believe Toyota has a patent on a new motor which is rare earth free. The newest battery tech uses way less cobalt as well and if the Li ion gets replaced with a new tech it might be over for the cobalt speculators. "Never bet against Elon Musk" - Peter Thiel

Tricia13 said...

Dunno deals on platinum (mentioned) but also palladium.
Based in a village in South Africa I think

Saintpat said...

I thought this was about some metal used in cell phones.

Unknown said...

@jack fascinating. share more on this.

Melvin The Reanimated said...

All I got is the fact it was believed in part one that the metal was cobalt.

gauloise said...

this is the only gossip site in the universe that does blind items on cobalt and cell phone metals

gauloise said...

The country was Congo, if i remember correctly

cc423 said...

Lithium.
Zimbabwe.
Russian billionaire Vladimir Iorich

Thonker said...

Wtf, that's fucked up. This site never ceases to surprise me what kind of fucked up stuff is happening in the world

Unknown said...

The rebel attacks could just as easily be government agents. The president was supposed to step down, both unrest it's easier for him to stay in and keep collecting money.

The foreign billionaire is Anthony Milesky.
http://www.co27.com/about-us/management-team/

Don Kieballs said...

Too lazy to research, but assumed Rhodium. Not sure it's in cell phone batteries, though, so I'll guess Palladium. It could be a few different companies (due to too lazy to search), but Amplats is a huge producer of both and is in S. Africa and Zimbabwe

PoliticallyIncorrect71 said...

Cobalt. Congo?

DDonna Tarttty said...

It was determined to be Cobalt and the Congo.

We can press on from there. The other country/elements are wrong.

Brayson87 said...

yup

http://www.afr.com/markets/commodities/metals/why-pala-investments-fund-manager-anthony-milewski-is-stockpiling-cobalt-20170129-gu12l4

Don Kieballs said...

My favorite color is Cobalt. Seriously. Does that make me guilty of supporting this?

plot said...

Sooooo, according the the supreme laws of our current capitalism (may they never be questioned) this billionaire and his buddies made a really good investment.

Not as torrid as some blinds, for sure, but I do like these financial ones.

La-Juice said...

This is Musk,

The metal is cobalt.

For some reason... CNN did a HUGE child labor is mining cobalt in african country for your fancy electric cars piece this morning.

Lulu Filona said...

Milewski is Russian, but lives in the U.S. Probably a Putin agent who will sell the lot so Putin can corner the market on a precious commodity, and send in "Advisors" to help the Rebels take power. Sounds like fiction, but in today's world, anything seems like a possibility.

Caoimhe said...

Jesus Christ, Plot, you are taxing to read.

Todd Brink said...

@Caoimhe He is happy to be "taxing". That way he can redistribute the wealth of the bourgeois to the proletariat.

plot said...

@Caoimhe

Sorry! Guess that writing teacher who taught us how to pack a sentence still lives in my head.

@Todd

HA! Nailed!

Sal Salington said...

Completely out of place on this site.

Literally the only reason it's here is so the Hedgester can profit.

Brayson87 said...

Now I like these types of blinds from Mr Hedge. Some say cobalt is the new gold but I think it's more like the new oil with all of the bullshit behind the scenes.

I live vicariously through everyone here. said...

DR of Congo = Cobalt

I live vicariously through everyone here. said...

And cobalt prices are skyrocketing.

Nor Cal said...

Great blind. Thanks Mr. Hedge!

Me Again said...

I frigging hate these people. Times like this I wish I believed in hell.

Mr. Hedge said...

You're welcome. Someone named the billionaire. See if you can get the name of the arms company.

slipperyGuy said...

I'm in this business. It is cobalt and the Congo. The market may be squeezed short term, but there are many ways to reduce the amount of cobalt used in Li-ion batteries. It will take a few years, but it will be done. When it happens, several people will be left holding the bag.

Guest777 said...

I think it's definitely soros. It's like,his thing, messing with governments and the financial markets. And it's gotta be musk...he's the one that's shitting his pants in the boardroom

Jesse Rice said...

It's not Soros. That's already been determined.

T. W. said...

@cc423

I think the consensus from part 1 is that the metal is cobalt.

Chile is the largest producer of lithium. Bolivia, Canada, China, & USA also mine lithium ore.

http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2010/ph240/eason2/

Lithium is highly reactive in its natural state. I don't see how large amounts can be stored.

T. W. said...

Late to the party.

As others have said, the metal is cobalt. The country is Democratic Republic of Congo.

I do not see how this is Musk, he announced Tesla will not be using cobalt. News reports say this will drive demand down. Dwindling demand does not cause an increase in price.

Having said that, other electric car manufacturers will be using cobalt. Daimler (Mercedes-Benz) & Volkswagon will use it.

Tesla:

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-05-02/tesla-supercharging-its-model-3-means-less-cobalt-more-nickel


Bloomberg:

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-05-04/tesla-s-battery-tweaks-won-t-solve-auto-world-s-cobalt-conundrum

Daimler & child labor

http://money.cnn.com/2018/05/02/investing/daimler-cobalt-supply-chain/index.html

T. W. said...

@Me Again

Hell definitely exists.

The devil always gets his due.

Burke said...

"he can be found" makes it sound like an oligarch like Derispaka. Soros is easy to find.

Schneiderisnext said...

@Mr. HEDGE

Seems like the Billionaire is the reclusive Vladimir Iorich. (Russian expat living in Germany)

Would the arms company be Russia's Rosoboronexport?

Mr. Hedge said...

Not the correct arms company

Manuél Bun said...

Goddamn, i don't even know how to feel when real life has basically become a comic book plot, except the most popular high fashions irl are even gayer n weirder than skintight spandex, full, metal facemasks and basic-bitch cultural cliche Village People getups. I do hope Magneto can get all the vibranium for Dr Doom and destroy Wakanda in the process tho, cuz real men don't use Lee Press-On Nails to scratch-fight and fugh it, why not?

rosie riveter said...

Lol 🤔
no ...no, it's not your sentence structure ...
It's more the eye rolling stuff ...

TMN said...

Soros is stockpiling Unobtanium. Wake up sheeple!

Adrian Zmed said...

Cobalt and Congo. No idea on billionaire but not Musk or Soros. Russian very plsusible.

I like Mr Hedge blinds as a change of pace on the site.

Erik said...

I do like mr hedge blinds

Jim Corrigan said...

I still have cobalt in my old chemistry set from the 4th grade. I'm rich. Buyin me a yacht. Gonna get some whores.

Gary Burnaska said...

Getting off oil will not END WARS, we will fight over a new key resource. People forget that these renewable energy systems need to be made out of STUFF. That stuff is RARE EARTH ELEMENTS. The USA does not have an available supple but China does, its why they are the producers of all of Apples iCrap.

plot said...

@Gary

Which is why picking a trade war with China might be considered stupid at this point, if I'm not mistaken.

Yeah Him said...

Kalishikov?

T. W. said...

Japan has an almost infinite supply of rare earth metals.

Schneiderisnext said...

Then I'm guessing it's an ammo company

Barnaul?

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